HPCL Future Share Price – What Can We Expect?

For investors looking to invest in the energy sector, there are several options available. India’s Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited (HPCL) is one of them. It is a major player in the oil and gas industry, offering services like refining, marketing, and transportation of petroleum products. This article aims to discuss the future share price of HPCL, based on various factors that can affect its stock performance in the coming years.

Current Performance of HPCL

Before we dive into the future prospects, let’s take a quick look at HPCL’s current performance. HPCL is one of the largest oil refining and marketing companies in India, with a market capitalization of over INR 50,000 crores. The company has a refining capacity of 18 million metric tonnes per annum (MMTPA) and operates over 13,000 retail fuel stations across the country. In the fiscal year 2020-21, HPCL’s revenue was INR 2.60 lakh crores, with a net profit of INR 2,327 crores. Its shares are trading at around INR 200 as of July 2021.

The company’s financials, like other oil marketing companies, are heavily dependent on crude oil prices. In India, the government regulates the prices of petrol and diesel, so the companies’ margins are not directly affected by the price fluctuations. However, the companies’ profits can get impacted by factors such as crude oil prices, foreign exchange rates, and refining margins.

Factors influencing the Future Share Price of HPCL

There are several factors that can affect HPCL’s future stock performance. Some of the significant ones are discussed below:

1. Crude Oil Prices:

As mentioned earlier, crude oil prices have a direct impact on the profitability of oil marketing companies like HPCL. In 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic caused an unprecedented drop in crude oil prices, leading to losses for the oil marketing companies. However, with the global economy slowly recovering, the demand for oil has also increased, leading to rising crude oil prices. This trend is likely to continue in the coming years, which bodes well for HPCL’s revenue and profits. However, external factors such as geopolitical tensions, natural disasters, and pandemics can cause fluctuations in crude oil prices.

2. Government Policies:

The government’s policies and regulations can impact HPCL’s stock performance. The deregulation of diesel prices in 2014 was a significant reform for the oil marketing industry, leading to a more transparent pricing mechanism. The government’s move to promote electric vehicles and clean energy can also affect the demand for petroleum products, which can impact HPCL’s revenue. On the other hand, favourable policies like tax reforms and subsidies can boost the company’s profits.

3. Refining Margins:

Refining margins are the difference between the purchase price of crude oil and the selling price of refined products. It is an essential determinant of oil marketing companies’ profitability. The refining margins have been volatile in the past, with factors like overcapacity, changing demand patterns, and competition defining them. However, HPCL has invested in its refining capabilities, leading to higher refining margins in recent years. The company has also ventured into petrochemicals and other value-added products to diversify its revenue streams.

4. Competitive Landscape:

HPCL competes with other oil marketing companies like Indian Oil Corporation (IOC), Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited (BPCL), and Reliance Industries in the Indian market. The competition can impact HPCL’s market share and pricing power. Therefore it is essential to keep a watchful eye on its competitors’ performance, marketing strategies, and expansion plans to predict HPCL’s growth trajectory.

5. Global Events:

The oil and gas industry is global, and events like trade wars, sanctions, political unrest, and natural disasters can affect its supply chain, pricing, demand, and production. These external factors can also impact HPCL’s fortunes, and investors must keep track of global events that can have a domino effect on the oil and gas sector.


Based on the analysis of the above factors, HPCL’s future share price appears promising. The company has a robust foundation, with a diverse product portfolio, a widespread retail network, and efficient refining capabilities. The recovery of the global economy and the demand for crude oil are likely to support HPCL’s revenue and profits in the coming years. However, investors must factor in external risks such as geopolitical uncertainties, government policies, and competition while making a decision to invest in HPCL’s stocks.